What is the current US election status?
There are 45 States with a resolved winner, and 5 pending. For now, Mr. Joe Biden (democrat) is winning against Mr. Donald Trump (republican) because he has 253 electors. The magic number is 270. Whoever achieves 270 electors wins the presidency. Each state has a fixed proportion of electors.
What is the “Electoral College”?
The Electoral College is the organ which appoints the President. It operates with this weird system of points for each state. Again, someone needs 270 electors to win the presidency.
Right now Biden has 253 electors, and Trump 213, with 5 states pending (plus a 6th state, Alaska, where Trump is expected to win) … so neither candidate has reached 270.
What are the states where vote counting is still pending?
-Georgia with 16 electoral votes
-Wisconsin with 10 electoral votes
-Pennsylvania with 20 electoral votes, Trump +1,7%
-Nevada with 6 electoral votes , Biden +0.9%
-Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, Biden +2 %
There is also North Carolina. In that state it seems probable (although not certain) that Trump will hold on to his lead and win the state … so for now 5 states have unknown outcomes.
What is needed for a candidate to win?
If Biden wins any 2 of the 5 still pending states, he will reach 270, and he actually, he could even do it with just 1 of the 5 states (if it’s Pennsylvania). In view of the current results, Trump would need to win in at least 4 of the aforementioned states.
The states are slower to count urban areas, where Biden does better … the states are also slower to count the mail-in ballots, which this year also favor Biden (because Trump told his supporters not to trust the postal service and to vote in person).
So, as they continue to count the ballots in the 5 pending states, most of the newly counted ballots are for Biden, for now.
Of the 5 mentioned states, Biden is already leading in the counts in 2 of them.
According to The New York Times, which favours democrats, “Biden Widens Lead in Nevada and Is Closing the Gap in Georgia”.North Carolina, but in that state it seems probable (although not certain) that Trump will hold on to his lead and win the state … so I would say 5 states have unknown outcomes.
What is Trump saying about the election?
He mentioned the possibility of fraud, and he is also suing (court cases) about a possible fraud in the election vote count. He also tweeted about it:
How the Congress will be shaped?
Assuming, as now looks likely, the republicans keep control of the senate, Biden will be greatly restrained in what he can do … the US president has a lot of power with military affairs and foreign affairs, but very little power (compared to most countries presidents) within the country , healthcare, environment, tax policies, financial regulation, retirement funds, etc., etc.
The Democrats will actually hold on to their control of the House of Representatives (the lower chamber of Congress). The Republicans will hold on to their control of the Senate (the upper chamber of Congress), although probably losing 1 or 2 seats.
What would happen if Trump looses the election?
There are still questions about if and how Trump will concede if he loosed the election, and also how his many loyal supporters will respond, there is a possibility of right-wing demontrations.
And there are also questions about what some republican politicians will do … will they abandon Trump if he looses? Or even if he is leaving office, will they fear a political backlash from his supporters?
we basically already know that it’s over and that biden has won … the big media outlets in the US (CNN, Fox News, CBS, NBC, ABC) are deciding how quickly to declare that biden has won … it very easily might be today
What happened before in the US elections?
In 2016, against Hillary Clinton, Trump won the electoral college (thus the presidency) but lost the national popular vote, so US elections are not always settled in one day. The electoral college is crucial.
Some of the readers might be old enough to remember November 2000, with Bush and Gore, dragging on for weeks in the media and in the courts (eventually reaching the US Supreme Court).
What will happen with the presidential power after the election?
assuming, as now looks likely, the republicans keep control of the senate, biden will be greatly restrained in what he can do … the US president has a lot of power with military affairs and foreign affairs, but very little power (compared to most countries’ presidents) within the country — healthcare, environment, tax policies, financial regulation, retirement funds, etc., etc.
With the collaboration of Larry Kamin, reporting for Derecho En Zapatillas